What now after N. Korea nuclear test?

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Test a "step forward" in North Korea's nuclear ambitions, says Chinoy


• U.S. likely to push for tougher sanctions, he says


• China's reaction to nuclear test will be key


• Timing linked to power transitions in the region and propaganda value

Editor's note: Mike Chinoy, a senior follow at the University of South California, the author of Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis and a former CNN senior international correspondent explains the implications of North Korea's third nuclear test.

Hong Kong (CNN) -- After much anticipation, and against the wishes of the international community, North Korea finally pushed the button on its third underground nuclear test, this time using more sophisticated technology than its previous attempts.

While it marks another milestone in the short, but increasingly eventful, reign of young leader Kim Jong Un, it also threatens to undermine an already fragile security situation in the region.

How worried should we be about North Korea's nuclear test?

It's worrying but does this mean they can drop a nuclear weapon on Los Angeles? Absolutely not. The notion that they are going to target the U.S. is way off the mark.

Any time the North Koreans stage a test, it significantly improves their nuclear capabilities. This comes after they staged a rocket launch that was successful, a long range rocket which appears to have put a satellite into orbit. What they need to achieve to have the weapon they want is the capability to miniaturize a warhead and put it on a rocket. This test isn't going to do that in and of itself, but it is a significant step forward.

What will happen next?

The U.N. Security Council will meet. South Korea is the chair this month so they get to call the agenda. There will be discussion about a much tougher sanctions resolution. The $64,000 question is whether the Chinese will in the end agree to anything significant enough for it to really affect North Korea.

I think it's certain, whatever the U.N. does, the U.S. will move on its own to ratchet up sanctions. I also think the Americans will beef up their military presence in the region. It will mean stronger anti-missile defenses going to South Korea and possibly Japan

Why is China's reaction so important?

The Chinese don't like the idea of international sanctions and coercing other countries. They still have a strategic interest in maintaining a viable separate North Korea as a buffer against a pro-U.S. South Korea and that has only become more important as tensions between the U.S. and China have increased.

Are you worried about NK's tests? Share your views with CNN

On the other hand, a nuclear North Korea that is behaving in an adventuristic way risks very bad outcomes from the Chinese point of view. What China least wants is a more active, antagonistic, robust U.S. military presence in North East Asia in conjunction with the strengthening of military capabilities of allies who are not China's friends.

Chinese companies are more involved in North Korea than they were half a dozen years ago, so the Chinese stand to lose on that front if the U.S. tightens sanctions.

Who really calls the shots in North Korea?

(North Korean leader) Kim Jong Un has people around him but he's driving the show. There's no evidence to suggest that he's not in charge. All the personnel changes he made he was able to make without enough pushback for it to matter. He's got military people around him, and his uncle. I don't see any evidence to see that he's not ultimately in charge.

How significant is the timing of the test?

It's the birthday of Kim Jong Il (Kim Jong Un's late father) on (Saturday). Assuming this (test) is not a total dud, this will be ... great propaganda and they will play it to the hilt. North Koreans are extremely nationalistic. They may be hungry, they may be miserable but by God they've got a bomb and they can stand up to the rest of the world and that really, really matters in North Korea.

You also have a power transitions in Seoul, Tokyo (and the U.S.). How can Barack Obama not devote more attention to North Korea in his State of the Union address? Everyone is reacting to them and that's how they (North Koreans) like it.

What don't we know?

We don't know yet whether this was a test of a plutonium device or a uranium device. The previous two tests were plutonium. We know they have a uranium enrichment capability. We know that a uranium bomb, once they master it, is easier to make and they have deposits of uranium in North Korea so they can keep digging it up.

If they have successfully detonated a uranium bomb and they have moved forward in the process of developing the technical capabilities to miniaturize it and put it on a war head, then in purely military terms it's worrying

The test also raises interesting questions on the proliferation front. The more successful they are with this program, the scarier the consequences should they choose, for example, to provide Iran with test data or fissile material or other information.

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Man charged with causing death of colleague through negligence

SINGAPORE: A man has been charged with causing the death of his 62-year-old colleague through negligence.

T Magesvaran A/L Tambisamy, 39, is accused of causing fellow production worker, Fan Chow Lin's death on 10 October 2012 at Idemitsu Lube Singapore in Pandan Road.

The alleged incident took place when the accused was operating the forklift to lift a tote tank designed to hold up to 2000 litres of liquids.

While doing so, Magesvaran is said to have mistakenly stepped on the accelerator instead of the brake, therefore causing the forklift to move forward and knocking into the tank.

Mr Fan was crushed between two tanks.

For causing a man's death due to negligence, the accused faces the maximum penalty of a jail term of up to two years and a fine.

- CNA/ck

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Police: No body yet found in hunt for Dorner

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• NEW: San Bernardino sheriff's spokeswoman says smoldering cabin too hot to enter


• Sources earlier tell CNN that LAPD reported body found, ID'd as suspect Dorner


• One sheriff's deputy in gun battle has died, other expected to survive


• Dorner is accused of killing an officer and the daughter and fiance of another cop last week

Follow the story here and at CNN affiliates KCBS/KCAL, KABC, and KTLA.

Near Big Bear Lake, California (CNN) -- Los Angeles police and the San Bernardino County Sheriff's Office moved Tuesday night to counter widespread reports that a body believed to be that of renegade ex-Los Angeles police officer Christopher Jordan Dorner had been recovered from a burning cabin near Big Bear Lake, California.

"No body has been pulled out," LAPD Cmdr. Andrew Smith said at a news conference. "No reports of a body being ID'd are true."

The cabin area was "too hot to make entry," Smith added.

Cindy Bachman, a spokeswoman for the lead agency in the case, the San Bernardino Sheriff's Department echoed that, saying at a separate news conference that authorities believe whoever was in the cabin never left.

"They believe that there is a body in there, but it is not safe to go inside," she told reporters. She added that officials believed there was still live ammunition in the cabin, which was still smoldering.

CNN and other media quoted numerous sources earlier in the evening as saying authorities had removed a body from the rubble of the fire and identified it as Dorner.

The intense fire, which burned for hours as authorities waited at a distance, began after a SWAT team stormed a cabin near Big Bear Lake where a suspect -- who authorities said matched Dorner's description -- had holed up after a fatal shootout with San Bernadino County sheriff's deputies.

The cabin caught fire after police detonated smoke devices inside the cabin, a law enforcement source told CNN.

One of two San Bernadino County sheriff's deputies wounded earlier Tuesday in the shootout with the suspect died, San Bernardino County Sheriff John McMahon told reporters at California's Loma Linda University Medical Center. The other deputy was in surgery "but he should be fine," McMahon said.

The wounded officers were taken to the Loma Linda facility after shots were exchanged with a man at a police roadblock near Big Bear Lake, the sheriff's office said earlier in a statement.

Tuesday's confrontations began when a California Fish and Wildlife officer was driving down a highway near Big Bear and recognized a man fitting the description of Dorner driving a vehicle in the other direction. The wildlife officer chased the vehicle and the driver opened fire on the officer before abandoning the truck, a statement from the agency said.

The officer's vehicle was hit numerous times, the statement said. While not specifically referring to the officer involved in the shootout, the statement said the agency's officers "are all safe and accounted for."

Cindy Bachman, a spokeswoman for the San Bernardino Sheriff's Department, said the suspect fled into the woods then into the cabin where he fired at the approaching deputies and holed up though the afternoon, still exchanging gunfire with authorities.

Later as the fire burned, with authorities staying back, she said authorities weren't 100% sure the suspect was still in the cabin.

Authorities have been searching for Dorner since he was named as the suspect in the shooting deaths February 3 of the daughter of his police union representative and her fiance. Police also say he killed one officer in Riverside, California, and wounded two others last Thursday.

Ex-cop at center of California manhunt

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The violent spree, authorities say, was part of Dorner's campaign of vigilante justice for what he believes was his unfair termination.

Los Angeles police spokesman Lt. Andy Neiman said Tuesday that the department had received more than 1,000 tips on Dorner's whereabouts. Some of the calls have come from Dorner's acquaintances or people who think they have spotted the fugitive.

The pace of tips being given to investigators increased by 400% after the city of Los Angeles put up a $1 million reward on Sunday for information leading to Dorner's arrest and conviction, Neiman said.

The search for the 270-pound, 6-foot Dorner has focused on the Big Bear Lake area, where authorities say his burning truck was discovered last week.

Talk Back: Why do some see Chistopher Dorner as a vigilante hero?

Over the past two weeks, the search, considered one of the largest in the history of Southern California, has taken authorities from Orange County to the border of Mexico and from Los Angeles to Big Bear Lake.

"Big Bear's still where we're looking right now," Neiman said Tuesday. The search area surrounds where Dorner's burning truck was discovered last Thursday .

"Until we can confirm that he's either there or he's not there, this investigation has to stick with what we know and what we know is that we found evidence that he was there," Neiman said.

While the LAPD spokesman told reporters he was "not ready to confirm" that a man seen in security camera video from a Southern California sporting goods store was Dorner, the Los Angeles Times quoted unnamed law enforcement sources saying it was him.

The video, published Monday by the celebrity news website TMZ.com, shows the man carrying what appears to be scuba equipment at the Sports Chalet store in Torrance, California, on February 1, two days before the killings of Monica Quan, the daughter of the police union rep, and her fiancé, Keith Lawrence.

A "no bail" arrest warrant was issued for Dorner after the Riverside County district attorney filed a murder charge Monday against him in the killing of Riverside Police Officer Michael Crain.

"That allows him to be apprehended anywhere within California, out of state or out of the country," District Attorney Paul Zellerbach told reporters Monday.

The murder charge is accompanied by two "special circumstances," including killing a police officer on duty and firing a weapon from a vehicle.

Dorner was also charged with the attempted murder of three other police officers, including another Riverside officer who was wounded when Crain was killed. That officer, whose name has not been released, is in a lot of pain and faces "many surgeries," Riverside Police Chief Sergio Diaz said.

Dorner is also accused of opening fire on two LAPD police officers, wounding one, in the suburb of Corona.

There has been speculation, based in part on an arrest warrant affidavit filed last week, that Dorner could have crossed state lines into Nevada or made his way to Mexico.

LAPD reopens case that led to Dorner's dismissal

Over the weekend, LAPD said it was reopening the case that resulted in his termination.

Dorner accused his training officer of kicking a mentally ill man during an arrest in 2007. The LAPD ruled the complaint unfounded and kicked Dorner off the force for filing a false complaint.

Dorner challenged his firing in court and lost.

Suspect's grudge dates back to 2007 complaint

In a manifesto released last week, Dorner blamed racism and corruption in the LAPD for his termination and vowed to wage "unconventional and asymmetrical warfare" against LAPD officers and their families. He called it a "last resort" to clear his name and strike back at a department he says mistreated him.

LAPD Chief Charlie Beck had a different term for it Sunday.

"This is an act -- and make no mistake about it -- of domestic terrorism," he told reporters Sunday. "This is a man who has targeted those that we entrust to protect the public. His actions cannot go unanswered."

Timeline in manhunt

Targeting police

Authorities say Dorner began making good on his threats on February 3 when he allegedly killed Quan, 27, and Lawrence in an Irvine parking lot, south of Los Angeles.

According to the manifesto, Randal Quan, Monica Quan's father, bungled Dorner's LAPD termination appeal.

Randal Quan represented Dorner during the disciplinary hearing that resulted in his firing. The officer was among dozens named in the manifesto.

The retired officer told investigators he received a call from someone identifying himself as Dorner who told him he "should have done a better job of protecting his daughter," according to a federal arrest warrant affidavit.

Investigators traced the call to Vancouver, Washington, but based on the timing of other sightings, they don't believe Dorner was in Vancouver at the time, the affidavit states.

Days later, early Thursday morning, Dorner allegedly opened fire on two LAPD police officers, wounding one, in the suburban city of Corona.

Roughly 20 minutes later, Dorner allegedly fired on two officers in the nearby city of Riverside, killing Crain and wounding another.

Since then, the LAPD has provided security and surveillance details for more than 50 police officers and their families -- many of whom were named in the manifesto.

Additionally, the LAPD is no longer releasing the police chief's schedule to the public or the media.

'Ghosts' of the LAPD's past

It was Dorner's allegations of racism at the LAPD that led Beck over the weekend to reopen the investigation into his claims.

Beck said he was not doing it to "appease a murderer" but out of concern that Dorner's allegations will resurrect a painful part of the department's history.

LAPD haunted by past

For years, the LAPD was dogged by complaints of racism and corruption. In 1965 and 1992, the city was rocked by racial riots that were sparked, in part, by claims of police racism and brutality.

"I hear the same things you hear: The ghosts of the past of the Los Angeles Police Department," Beck said Sunday. "I hear that people think maybe there is something to what he says, and I want to put that to rest."

Despite numerous reviews of Dorner's case, he said it has "never been reviewed by me."

"If there is anything new, we will deal with it, and we will deal with it in a public way," Beck said.

CNN's Paul Vercammen, Stan Wilson, Casey Wian, Kathleen Johnston, Alan Duke, Matt Smith, Chelsea J. Carter, Michael Martinez and Holly Yan contributed to this report.

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Parents of slain Chicago teen attend State of the Union

Updated 12:20 a.m. EST Feb. 13

(CBS News) CHICAGO -- Among the First Lady's guests at the capitol Tuesday for the State of the Union address were the parents of Hadiya Pendleton. The 15-year-old honor student was shot to death, not far from the Obamas' Chicago home -- an innocent victim of the city's gang wars.

Hadiya Pendleton

On Tuesday, two suspects were ordered held without bail.

Chicago detectives flooded the area of the city park where Hadiya was killed last month. They were led to the suspects using surveillance video and interviews with parolees in the neighborhood. Alleged gang members, Michael Ward, 18, who police say has already confessed, and Kenneth Williams, 20, were picked up on Saturday night and charged on Monday.

"They thought the group they shot into included members of a rival gang. Instead, it was a group of upstanding, determined kids, who -- like Hadiya -- were repulsed by the gang lifestyle," said Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy.

Hadiya's parents, invited to the State of the Union in Washington, were relieved.

Watch: Hadiya Pendleton's mother told reporters her daughter's death "cannot be in vain," below.

"I can't close the book on my child, but I am very excited that the murderers who hurt my baby have been caught," said Cleopatra Cowley, Hadiya's mother.

Ward, the alleged triggerman, has a long criminal record, but the police noted that when he pleaded guilty to unlawful use of a firearm about a year ago, he was given probation and stayed free despite three subsequent arrests.

"This has to stop. Gun offenders have to do significant jail time," said McCarthy.

Tom Byrne, Chicago's chief of detectives, said Illinois' gun laws are undermined by a lack of mandatory minimum sentences for gun violations.

Hadiya Pendleton Update: No bail for two men charged in Chicago teen's shooting death
Before State of the Union, gun violence victims demand action
Accused Hadiya Pendleton killers denied bail

"If you get caught with a gun, and there's a minimum sentencing, you're gonna be off the streets for a while," Byrne said. "You're not gonna have the opportunity, within six months of being caught with a gun, to shoot somebody else."

If convicted in this case, the two suspects could face life in prison.

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State of the Union: Obama Pushes Job Creation

Pursuing an aggressive and diverse early second-term agenda, President Obama turned his focus Tuesday night squarely to the economy, using his State of the Union address to unveil new government initiatives aimed at creating jobs.

The defining duty of the new Congress and new administration is to "reignite the true engine of America's economic growth -- a rising, thriving middle class," Obama said Tuesday night from the House chamber.

"That must be the North Star that guides our efforts," he said.

Obama's proposals had a familiar ring, including re-packaged economic ideas but also offering several bold new measures aimed at boosting the middle class.

None of the proposals would add to the deficit "by a single dime," Obama pledged, with costs offset by savings carved out in the budget and from money saved from ending two wars.

"It's not a bigger government we need, but a smarter government that sets priorities and invests in broad-based growth," Obama said.

For the first time as president, Obama called for raising the minimum wage from $7.25 to $9.00 an hour by 2015. He proposed to ensure future increases by indexing the minimum wage to inflation.

He proposed a national goal of universal pre-school education, an effort to help states provide tens of thousands of low- to middle-income four-year-old children access to quality public education from an earlier age.

Charles Dharapak/Pool/AP Photo

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And, to heal the nation's crumbling roads and bridges, Obama offered a $50 billion "fix it first" infrastructure program that would prioritize repair of existing structures before building new ones.

"Every day, we should ask ourselves three questions as a nation," Obama said. "How do we attract more jobs to our shores? How do we equip our people with the skills needed to do those jobs? And how do we make sure that hard work leads to a decent living?"

Answers to those questions, the president suggested, include redoubling investments in clean energy technologies -- a step which he said would both benefit the environment and reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil.

"For the sake of our children and our future, we must do more to combat climate change," he said.

He called for doubling the amount of renewable electricity generation in the U.S. by 2020, and announced an energy version of his "Race to the Top" education program that would give states grants for the best energy efficiency programs.

Related: 7 Things Obama Says at Every State of the Union

In tandem with his economic focus, Obama announced the withdrawal of 34,000 U.S. troops from Afghanistan by this time next year, cutting in half the current force and marking a quickened pace for the final exit of U.S. combat forces by a 2014 deadline.

There are currently 66,000 U.S. troops serving in Afghanistan. Obama has vowed to bring nearly all of them home by the end of next year, though a small contingent will likely remain to train Afghan forces and assist counterterrorism operations, officials have said.

Obama touched briefly on his recently-unveiled proposals to overhaul the nation's immigration system, expand rights for gay and lesbian Americans and curb an epidemic of gun violence.

With dozens of victims of gun violence looking on from the House gallery, including former Rep. Gabby Giffords, and families of victims from shootings at Newtown, Conn., Oak Creek, Wisc., and Aurora, Colo., Obama made an emotional plea for an up-or-down vote on his gun control plan.

"Each of these proposals deserves a vote in Congress," he said of proposed restrictions on assault-style weapons and high capacity magazines, and enhanced background checks, among other measures.

"If you want to vote no, that's your choice," he said. "But these proposals deserve a vote. Because in the two months since Newtown, more than a thousand birthdays, graduations and anniversaries have been stolen from our lives by a bullet from a gun."

Read More: President Obama's Past State of the Union Promises

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Why pope will long be remembered

Tim Stanley says Pope Benedict will be seen as an important figure in church history.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Timothy Stanley: Benedict XVI's resignation is historic since popes usually serve for life


• He says pope not so much conservative as asserting church's "living tradition"


• He backed traditionalists, but a conflicted flock, scandal, culture wars a trial to papacy, he says


• Stanley: Pope kept to principle, and if it's not what modern world wanted, that's world's problem

Editor's note: Timothy Stanley is a historian at Oxford University and blogs for Britain's The Daily Telegraph. He is the author of "The Crusader: The Life and Times of Pat Buchanan."

(CNN) -- Journalists have a habit of calling too many things "historic" -- but on this occasion, the word is appropriate. The Roman Catholic Church is run like an elected monarchy, and popes are supposed to rule until death; no pope has stepped down since 1415.

Therefore, it almost feels like a concession to the modern world to read that Benedict XVI is retiring on grounds of ill health, as if he were a CEO rather than God's man on Earth. That's highly ironic considering that Benedict will be remembered as perhaps the most "conservative" pope since the 1950s -- a leader who tried to assert theological principle over fashionable compromise.

Timothy Stanley

The word "conservative" is actually misleading, and the monk who received me into the Catholic Church in 2006 -- roughly a year after Benedict began his pontificate -- would be appalled to read me using it. In Catholicism, there is no right or left but only orthodoxy and error. As such, Benedict would understand the more controversial stances that he took as pope not as "turning back the clock" but as asserting a living tradition that had become undervalued within the church. His success in this regard will be felt for generations to come.

He not only permitted but quietly encouraged traditionalists to say the old rite, reviving the use of Latin or receiving the communion wafer on the tongue. He issued a new translation of the Roman Missal that tried to make its language more precise. And, in the words of one priest, he encouraged the idea that "we ought to take care and time in preparing for the liturgy, and ensure we celebrate it with as much dignity as possible." His emphasis was upon reverence and reflection, which has been a healthy antidote to the 1960s style of Catholicism that encouraged feverish participation bordering on theatrics.

Nothing the pope proposed was new, but it could be called radical, trying to recapture some of the certainty and beauty that pervaded Catholicism before the reforming Vatican II. Inevitably, this upset some. Progressives felt that he was promoting a form of religion that belonged to a different century, that his firm belief in traditional moral theology threatened to distance the church from the people it was supposed to serve.

If that's true, it wasn't the pope's intent. Contrary to the general impression that he's favored a smaller, purer church, Benedict has actually done his best to expand its reach. The most visible sign was his engagement on Twitter. But he also reached out to the Eastern Orthodox Churches and spoke up for Christians persecuted in the Middle East.

In the United Kingdom, he encouraged married Anglican priests to defect. He has even opened up dialogue with Islam. During his tenure, we've also seen a new embrace of Catholicism in the realm of politics, from Paul Ryan's nomination to Tony Blair's high-profile conversion. And far from only talking about sex, Benedict expanded the number of sins to include things such as pollution. It's too often forgotten that in the 1960s he was considered a liberal who eschewed the clerical collar.

The divisions and controversies that occurred under Benedict's leadership had little to do with him personally and a lot more to do with the Catholic Church's difficult relationship with the modern world. As a Catholic convert, I've signed up to its positions on sexual ethics, but I appreciate that many millions have not. A balance has to be struck between the rights of believers and nonbelievers, between respect for tradition and the freedom to reject it.

As the world has struggled to strike that balance (consider the role that same-sex marriage and abortion played in the 2012 election) so the church has found itself forced to be a combatant in the great, ugly culture war. Benedict would rather it played the role of reconciler and healer of wounds, but at this moment in history that's not possible. Unfortunately, its alternative role as moral arbiter has been undermined by the pedophile scandal. Nothing has dogged this pontificate so much as the tragedy of child abuse, and it will continue to blot its reputation for decades to come.

For all these problems, my sense is that Benedict will be remembered as a thinker rather than a fighter. I have been so fortunate to become a Catholic at a moment of liturgical revival under a pope who can write a book as majestic and wise as his biography of Jesus. I've been lucky to know a pope with a sense of humor and a willingness to talk and engage.

If he wasn't what the modern world wanted -- if he wasn't prepared to bend every principle or rule to appease all the people all the time -- then that's the world's problem rather than his. Although he has attained one very modern distinction indeed. On Monday, he trended ahead of Justin Bieber on Twitter for at least an hour.

Follow us on Twitter @CNNOpinion

Join us on Facebook/CNNOpinion

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Timothy Stanley.

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Sri Lanka drops IMF loan bid over spending dispute

COLOMBO: Sri Lanka on Tuesday dropped plans for a fresh $1.0-billion loan from the International Monetary Fund following disagreements over how the money should be spent, the central bank said.

The government announced last month that it was seeking a new cash infusion from the IMF after drawing down a previous $2.6-billion bailout loan six months ago.

"Sri Lankan authorities have decided not to pursue a new programme with the IMF, but to continue maintaining the close relationship with the Fund under standard consultation processes similar to many other member countries," the central bank said.

Treasury chief Punchi Banda Jayasundera had said he wanted the new IMF loan to spend on infrastructure while the US-based lender was only willing to hand over money to bolster the bank's foreign reserves.

"The IMF has indicated that the Fund may not be in a position to consider any direct or indirect budget support to Sri Lanka," the bank statement said.

Money for foreign reserves is not meant for immediate spending, but serves to enhance a country's creditworthiness.

An IMF team is currently in Colombo conducting annual consultations with Sri Lankan authorities.

The 2009 IMF bailout was secured when Sri Lanka's foreign reserves crashed to a dangerously low level of $1 billion. They now stand at a comfortable $7 billion.

The bank also announced on Monday that Sri Lanka's new taxes on cars and luxury goods had helped reduce imports last year and narrow the huge trade deficit.

Faced with a balance of payments problem in 2011, the government hiked car imports by up to 300 per cent, stopped credit for luxury imports and allowed the local currency to depreciate sharply by nearly 20 per cent.

The government has revised down its growth estimate for 2012 from 7.2 per cent to 6.5 per cent.

Sri Lanka's economy grew 8.3 per cent in 2011, up from 8.0 per cent in 2010, the first full year after government forces crushed Tamil rebels bringing an end to the island's ethnic war.

- AFP/ck

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Seismic activity reported near North Korea nuclear test sites

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• NEW: "We believe North Korea conducted its third nuclear test," a South Korean official says


• A magnitude 4.9 disturbance takes place in area of previous underground nuclear tests


• There is little or no history of natural seismic activity in the area


• North Korea said last month it would carry out a third nuclear test

Hong Kong (CNN) -- North Korea appeared to have conducted its third underground nuclear bomb test Tuesday, officials and experts said, as U.S. seismologists reported activity centered near the site of the secretive regime's two previous atomic blasts.

Although North Korea had warned the world of its plans to carry out a new test in a vitriolic statement last month, the move is still likely to rattle the security situation in Northeast Asia as analysts try to determine the power and complexity of the device the North is thought to have detonated.

If confirmed, it would be the first nuclear test under the North's young leader, Kim Jong Un, who appears to be sticking closely to his father's policy of building up the isolated state's military deterrent to keep its foes at bay, shrugging off the resulting international condemnation and sanctions.

It also provided a provocative reminder of a seemingly intractable foreign policy challenge for President Barack Obama ahead of his State of the Union address later Tuesday.

The area around the reported epicenter of the magnitude 4.9 disturbance in northeastern North Korea has little or no history of earthquakes or natural seismic hazards, according to U.S. Geological Survey maps. The disturbance Tuesday took place at a depth of about 1 kilometer, the USGS said.

Officials suspect a nuclear test

Government officials and security analysts had little doubt about the cause of the quake.

"We believe North Korea conducted its third nuclear test," said Kim Min-seok, a spokesman for the South Korean defense ministry. He added that the magnitude of the "artificial tremor" suggested the size of the blast was in the order of 6 to 7 kilotons, more powerful than the North's two prior nuclear tests.

"If we come to a final conclusion that it is a nuclear test," he said, "then we will consult with the international community and respond strongly."

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said that based on past cases, "We believe there is a possibility that North Korea conducted a nuclear test."

There were no initial reports concerning the activity on the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency on Tuesday.

"It's a nuclear test," said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. "That magnitude and that location -- it's awfully unlikely it's anything else."

In Washington, a senior administration official said the United States was working to confirm a nuclear test.

The China Earthquake Network Center said on its website that the seismic disturbance in North Korea was a "suspected explosion."

News breaks at a quiet time in Asia

The suspected test took place at a time when several East Asian countries, including China, North Korea's major ally, are observing public holidays for the Lunar New Year, which began Sunday.

It also comes ahead of the birthday on Saturday of Kim Jong Il, the former North Korean leader who died in December 2011 and was succeeded by his son, Kim Jong Un.

North Korea announced last month that it was planning a new nuclear test and more long-range rocket launches, all of which it said were part of a new phase of confrontation with the United States.

It made the threats two days after the United Nations Security Council had approved the broadening of sanctions on the reclusive, Stalinist regime in response to the North's launching of a long-range rocket in December that succeeded in putting a satellite in orbit.

Pyongyang said it carried out the launch for peaceful purposes, but it was widely considered to be a test of ballistic missile technology.

U.S. analysts say North Korea's first bomb test, in October 2006, produced an explosive yield at less than 1 kiloton (1,000 tons) of TNT. A second test in May 2009 is believed to have been about two kilotons, National Intelligence Director James Clapper told a Senate committee in 2012.

By comparison, the bomb the United States dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 was a 15-kiloton device.

In May 2012, North Korea said it had amended its constitution to formally proclaim itself a "nuclear state."

CNN's Jethro Mullen reported and wrote from Hong Kong. CNN's K.J. Kwon in Seoul, South Korea; Yoko Wakatsuki in Tokyo; Dana Ford and Matt Smith in Atlanta, Georgia; and Elise Labott in Washington contributed to this report. Journalist Connie Young in Beijing also contributed reporting.

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State of the Union guests reflect nation's hot-button issues

Several lawmakers are bringing special guests to President Obama's State of the Union address Tuesday night in order to make a statement.

Several lawmakers are bringing guests to help underscore the importance of gun control. More than 20 House Democrats are bringing guests who have been personally affected by gun violence. A bipartisan pair of Arizona lawmakers, meanwhile, will host former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., and her husband Mark Kelly.

Other lawmakers are bringing guests tied to issues like immigration and voting rights.

Below is a partial list of officials and the guests they are bringing. CBS News will update the list as more guests are confirmed:

First Lady Michelle Obama:

• Lt. Brian Murphy, who was wounded while responding to the Sikh Temple shooting last August in Oak Creek, Wisconsin. He was struck by 15 bullets.
• Cleopatra Cowley-Pendleton and Nathaniel Pendleton Sr., parents of 15-year-old Hadiya who was killed in a Chicago park.
• Desiline Victor, a 103-year-old Florida woman who waited in line for several hours to vote.
• Tim Cook, CEO of Apple.

House Minority Leader Pelosi:

• Mother and daughter from Newtown, Conn. The 4th grader sent Pelosi a letter asking for her support to strengthen gun laws in the wake of the Sandy Hook massacre.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Rep. Ron Barber, D-Ariz.:

• Former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., and her husband Mark Kelly

Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Texas:

• Musician and gun advocate Ted Nugent

Sens. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., and Chris Murphy, D-Conn.:

• First Selectwoman Pat Llodra, a Republican and the Chief Executive Officer of Newtown
• Newtown Detectives Jason Frank and Dan McAnaspie, two of several first responders who rushed to Sandy Hook Elementary School on the day of the tragedy

Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill.:

• Undocumented immigrant Gabino Sanchez. The South Carolina husband and father of two U.S. citizen children is fighting deportation. Sanchez entered the country when he was 15 years old and has been working and living peacefully in the U.S. ever since.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif.:

• Josh Stepakoff, who in 1999 was shot at the North Valley Jewish Community Center in Granada Hills, Calif. Stepakoff, now 20, is a student at California State University Northridge.

Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J.:

• Matt Gross, a New Jersey native who was shot in the head in 1997, at the age of 27. Gross was one of several victims wounded during a shooting attack on the observation deck of the Empire State Building.

More House Democrats bringing guests affected by gun violence:

Rep. Jim Langevin, R.I.

Rep. Keith Ellison, Minn.

Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, N.Y.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro, Conn.

Rep. David Cicilline, R.I.

Rep. Diana DeGette, Colo.

Rep. Tammy Duckworth, Ill.

Rep. Elizabeth Esty, Conn.

Rep. Lois Frankel, Fla.

Rep. Lujan Grisham, N.M.

Rep. Janice Hahn, Calif.

Rep. Jim Himes, Conn.

Rep. Alan Lowenthal, Calif.

Rep. Gloria Negrete-McLeod, Calif.

Rep. Eleanor Holmes Norton, D.C.

Rep. Ed Perlmutter, Colo.

Rep. Jan Schakowsky, Ill.

Rep. Brad Schneider, Ill.

Rep. Bobby Scott, Va.

Rep. Mike Thompson, Calif.

Rep. Krysten Sinema, Ariz.

Rep. Chris Van Hollen, Md.

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North Korean Tremor Raises Fear of Nuke Test

A large tremor measured at magnitude 4.9 was detected in North Korea and governments in the region scrambled to determine whether it was a nuclear test that the North Korean regime has vowed to carry out despite international protests.

Japan's prime minister has called an urgent security meeting, according to chief government spokesman Yoshihide Suga, and South Korea raised its military alert level, the AP reported.

Suspicions were aroused when the U.S. Geological Survey said it had detected a magnitude 4.9 earthquake Tuesday in North Korea.

The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization told ABC News, "We confirm that a suspicious seismic event has taken place in North Korea." The agency said it was trying to confirm the nature of the tremor.

"The event shows clear explosion-like characteristics and its location is roughly congruent with the 2006 and 2009 DPRK (North Korea) nuclear tests," said Tibor Toth, executive secretary of the organization.

North Korea Threatens More Nuclear Tests, Warns U.S. Watch Video

"If confirmed as a nuclear test, this act would constitute a clear threat to international peace and security, and challenges efforts made to strengthen global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation," Toth said in a statement on the organization's web site.

Kim Min-seok, a South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman, told reporters that North Korea informed United States and China that it intended to carry out another nuclear test, according to the AP. But U.S. officials did not respond to calls from ABC News Monday night.

The seismic force measured 10 kilotons, according to Min-seok.

"Now that's an absolutely huge explosion by conventional terms. It's a smallish, but not tiny explosion by nuclear terms. It's about two-thirds the size of the bomb that the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima," James Acton, a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told ABC News.

North Korea threatened in January to carry out a "higher-level" test following the successful Dec. 12 launch of a long range rocket. At the time, North Korea's leader Kim Jong-Un said his country's weapons tests were specifically targeting the United States.

The suspicious tremor comes just hours before President Obama is to give the State of the Union address, and it marks the first diplomatic test in the region for new Secretary of State John Kerry.

China, North Korea's main ally in the region, has warned North Korea it would cut back severely needed food assistance if it carried out a test. Each year China donates approximately half of the food North Korea lacks to feed its people and half of all oil the country consumes.

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